posted by Jerry on Jul 22
Most people’s beliefs about investing are extremely tenuous. There are, of course, people who are really passionate about investing. They really don’t view investing as some esoteric subject, but rather as a field intimately connected to the human behavior they observe in their everyday lives.
For everyone else, however, beliefs about investing come within the form of passive knowledge. The tendency is simply to accumulate an inventory of conventional dictums. Investing beliefs are formed much the way a student prepares for a test. If the subject of investing were as simple as a third grade spelling bee, this wouldn’t be a problem.
But, investing is really a far more complex subject. That isn’t to say it is necessarily a difficult subject. For some, it is relatively easy. But, it is never simple. An investor can not analyze relationships with the certitude and precision a physicist can. The investor is concerned with human phenomena, which are necessarily complex phenomena.
The complexity from the subject is what makes it appear so difficult. While you can develop a set of guiding principles, it is impossible to devise rules that will lead you towards the finest course of action in each and every case.
Should you try to build an intellectual edifice based on principles such as higher returns on equity, strong consumer franchises, low price-to-earnings ratios, low enterprise value-to-EBIT ratios, higher free cash flow margins, and rock solid balance sheets – you will fail.
The entire structure will collapse, leaving the architect disillusioned. Why? Since the items listed above are desirable attributes – nothing more and nothing less. They are not true principles. Even as rules of thumb, they are badly flawed. Ultimately, investment decisions are not made about general classes; they are made about special cases.
Every expense decision requires good judgment and sound reasoning. You need to begin with the correct principles. But, principles alone are not sufficient. You aren’t being asked what the law is, you’re becoming told to apply the law for the case before you.
This really is where a lot of individuals begin to feel overwhelmed. Having learned that investing is not simply a matter of running down a checklist, they don’t know where to begin.
The answer is to start with what you know best. Begin with your most strongly held beliefs. Subject them to honest scrutiny. Then, and only then, apply them to the case at hand.
Do you believe the concept of intrinsic value is really a valid one? Do you believe it can be a useful model? If so, then begin there. What does the concept of intrinsic value really mean? What conclusions follow from this belief?
In the case of intrinsic value, the most difficult conclusion you’ll have to grapple with could be the idea that you can pay too much for a great business. For some, this really is a relatively simple conflict to resolve. For whatever reason, they prefer cheap merchandise to quality merchandise.
For others, the conflict between intrinsic value and investing in great businesses is painfully difficult to resolve. But, in case you are ever going to have confidence in your judgments, you might have to be willing to submit your expense beliefs to honest scrutiny. You’ve to be your very own prosecutor. You might have to present the evidence against your thesis.
If you aren’t willing to accomplish that, you’ll end up questioning the purchase beliefs you do hold every time you underperform the market. Numerous proven investment techniques have lagged the market over short periods of time. Occasionally, the performance gap has been very wide. Regardless of regardless of whether you adopt a primarily qualitative or primarily quantitative approach to investing, this short-term underperformance is unavoidable.
It’s actually avoidable within the sense that a good investor can get lucky and not suffer a down year for a decade or so. Likewise, it is possible to outperform an index year following year – if you’re lucky. But, it isn’t possible to adopt a strategy that guarantees such outperformance.
The finest you are able to do is adopt a strategy that offers the right odds. A series of purchase operations undertaken in accordance with such a strategy will not guarantee favorable outcomes in every case, but it should supply satisfactory results over the long-term.
There’s more than one way to skin a cat. I do not want to encourage dogmatism. But, I do want to make sure you don’t confuse that which is conventional with that which is reasonable. There is a lot of conventional, moderate sounding advice given to investors that does not hold up to careful scrutiny.
The most obvious example is diversification. Making a series of bets on separate high-probability events is definitely an superb idea. Diversifying across numerous various asset classes and hundreds of securities is something entirely various. Even if there are hundreds or thousands of superb investment opportunities, it does not follow that an investor ought to make every reasonable bet. Following all, some will appear to be more reasonable than others. There is no sense in taking on numerous difficult tasks within the hopes of achieving a result that can be produced by taking on a few extremely easy tasks.
You don’t have to agree with me on all these issues – most people do not. But, it is essential that you question the unstated assumptions upon which an purchase operation is based. You may come for the same conclusion as those who engage in wide diversification. But, you will need to come to that conclusion on your personal.
Numerous investors have not even bothered to consider the underlying premise of diversification. They aren’t really sure why diversification is a desirable strategy. They don’t know how it minimizes risk or at what point the benefit from adding an additional position becomes immaterial. Diversification may be a prudent strategy. But, you are able to only decide that for yourself following you’ve considered the benefits in terms of risk reduction and also the detriments in terms of selectivity reduction.
If I were forced to spend my existence betting on horse races, I’m quite certain I would bet on extremely few races. Whenever I did bet on a race, I’d bet on a number of diverse horses.
Why? Since I know a lot more about people than I do about horses. The likelihood that a few horses in a few races get as well much favorable attention appears much greater than the likelihood that I could ever make reasonably specific judgments as to which horse is most likely to win a given race. Of course, I would do best if I didn’t bet on any horse races at all.
So, the question is whether or not stocks are anything like horses. I really don’t think they are. When it comes to businesses, I’m a lot more comfortable with the idea of picking the few winners from the several losers – especially when the odds get out of whack. The a single tactic that would continue to be the exact same is inaction. Acting less and thinking much more is sound advice wherever cash or commitment is concerned.
A profitable investor has to have confidence in his judgments. I do not know how you can gain that confidence with out subjecting your beliefs to honest scrutiny. An unexamined philosophy will never exorcise your deepest doubts – and for as lengthy as these doubts remain, you will be unable to discover the confidence you seek.
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